Summer 2011 Temperatures and Natural Gas Forecast
With most of Texas under burn bans and wildfires carving up the state like an Easter ham, some people are dreading what the summer weather might be like. After all, if it’s going to be dry and hot, then you’ll probably run your air conditioner nearly all the time. And if that’s so and gas prices are rising, then you’re probably worried you’ll spend a fortune on Texas electricity rates.
Whoa! Not so fast. Let’s have a look at some facts and market data.
The National Weather Service predicts that the current La Nina pattern in the Pacific will gradually diminish in the Pacific Ocean reaching a neutral effect by June. What that all means is that conditions will stay about the same. Texas will probably continue to have warm dry weather through the summer. These will likely moderate gradually through August into the autumn with normal conditions re-emerging by October and November. Unfortunately, that means the risk of wildfires will continue through the summer due to dry soil and little rain.
So, the summer’s going to be hot and dry. Yes, you will run your air conditioner a lot.
Electricity prices, on the other hand, don’t look to be as grim.
It’s no secret that Texas energy rates are tied to natural gas. Nearly one half of all Texas electricity is generated by burning natural gas. Back in 2008, you might recall when speculation in petroleum futures helped drive gasoline prices to $4.00/gallon and above. Natural gas prices shot up, too, dragging Texas electricity rates up with them. Natural gas peaked at $13.69 mmBtu in July 2008 and some consumers were paying over 20
