2007 outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, the world economy in 2008 turned into financial crisis in 2009, further deterioration of the complex economic crisis. Although the world economy temporarily stabilized, but then the second world economic recession occurs? Or continuous depression? Or the long-term slump? In this regard, governments answer seems to be somewhat optimistic, but practical problems still hidden in the depths, cited without hair, to the author 30 years of experience of developed economies, it is best not to rash conclusions.

China is already the largest country in world exports, but also among the forefront of the economic scale to study the foreign economic crisis on the world first need to be sure the trend of economic development.

After the crisis the world economy will enter a kind of era? The media can often see the “post-crisis era” is used. But as a long-term research scholars of the world economy can not be so simple vague rhetoric in passing, a variety of trends from the world economy needs to conduct in-depth analysis, grasp the essential characteristics and core content can be targeted to China’s foreign economic development strategy put forward concept.

1. Changing Age?

The world economic crisis consists of three properties: a cyclical adjustment, structural crisis and the end of the current development model. In other words, the economic crisis, the crisis are complex, and its severity is much more than ordinary cyclical recession. Just because the cyclical adjustment for cyclical downturn, about a year or so experienced, the economy will gradually recover, which it has long been known, the world economy always run about every 3-5 years to complete once.

But the structural crisis is the economy, a serious imbalance in industrial structure, and impeded the economic growth of the major factors. Obviously not a crisis caused by structural imbalances can be done short-term adjustment, it can not copy the traditional means of macroeconomic control to be adjusted, would have little effect hastily adjusted, or even counterproductive.

The third crisis is the nature of the end of the development model, such as the United States ahead of the consumer, financial catalyst model of development over economic growth, to the extreme, paid in advance of demand. Instead of the drawbacks of the model is fully “fermentation”, such as household debt too heavy, the real estate bubble burst, has been ahead of final consumption expenditure, private consumption can no longer be expected to promote economic growth.

The financial side of economic development has long been catalyzed with the deleveraging and the “loss of effectiveness,” and can not stimulate economic growth and if the implementation of new or improved catalytic financial strength pushed the U.S. economy does not make progress, because the loss of consumer financial derivatives who trust the market is shrinking. As the second quarter of 2010 as shown in U.S. economic growth structure, almost all rely on equipment investment, driven by manufacturing exports. Clearly the old model of economic growth the U.S. has completed its historic mission. In the new stage of development need to find and create a new model, and change the development model can not be completed overnight.

Similar structure and mode of development issues, the United States, EU, Japan, China and East Asia there is also limited space can not be specific to start. Therefore, the need for the world economy generally cyclical, structural adjustment, you need to change the development mode. Historical experience shows that structural adjustment, change the mode of development takes a long time forward. During this period tends to slow world economic growth is bound, then the performance of weak economic growth as “fragile”, inability to “trouble”, so place a small decline is not surprising, this is the current hot one of the “double dip” 90 is the last century a true portrayal of the Japanese economy. Can be expected that the world economy and major adjustments will not be easy. Moreover, if the policy swings of Governments, as indicated in the 90’s the Japanese head of government occurred in 9 of 10 change, the adjustment process will be more twists and turns, the time should be extended. Therefore suggests that the future world economy will enter a big adjustment era, does not seem excessive. Changing Age will continue to slow world economic growth, China’s foreign economic and national economic development will have a profound impact.

2. Reduction times, the green revolution?

End of 2009, the world climate summit in Copenhagen. Agreement reached at the meeting will be a turning point in human social development, the core of the human spirit is finally beginning to learn to compromise the natural world, recognizing the need to live in harmony with nature, the need for strict constraints the behavior of the human destruction of nature, to prevent the outbreak of ecological crisis. Thus all mankind and not a few developed countries need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions bargaining game, share the emission reduction targets. All mankind and not a few developed countries need to learn to develop the economy taking into account the ecological balance. Since then, all human society, manufacturing and consumption activities must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, pay attention to maintaining the ecological balance.

This requires the production of human beings, without exception, the implementation of major reforms and technical activities. And not made such a huge social and economic engineering time and effort and reach wide, need to uncover a new energy revolution, industrial revolution, even if consistent values of human society, ethics, ideology will be different . Therefore, the Chinese economy and foreign economic development strategy of course there need to be “green treatment.”

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Category: World Affairs
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