Copenhagen last year, political leaders made a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; this year, G20 and APEC decided to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. With the global economy out of decades the most serious crisis, we can embark on the world access to safe, reliable and environmentally sustainable energy system of the way?

World Energy Department in the upcoming “World Energy Outlook 2010″report, for the global citizen who painted the next 25 years, the evolution picture of the energy system. Report the use of extensive data, forecasting and analysis, that “the world is facing an unprecedented energy uncertainty.”

Unprecedented uncertainty

2008 and 2009 global economic crisis, the global energy markets in turmoil, despite the economic situation over the past year has been greatly improved, but the double-dip economic downturn and the rapid increase in the fear of the government budget deficit in the next few years, the economic outlook remains very uncertain, it is difficult to confidently predict the medium-term prospects of energy.

The past year also witnessed significant policy to accelerate the pace of countries on climate change and reform inefficient fossil fuel subsidies and other important international agreements were negotiated. Fiscal stimulus package as part of governments to accelerate the introduction of financial support and incentives, which greatly promoted the development and promotion of low carbon technologies. These initiatives promise to promote the urgent need for the transformation of the global energy system, but people still doubt the implementation of policy commitments.

Copenhagen agreement related to all major emitting countries and many other countries, set a non-binding goal to limit global temperature rise to more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times. The agreement also for industrialized countries to use funds for climate change mitigation and adaptation in developing countries set a target to 2020 $ 100,000,000,000 per year and requires industrialized countries to emissions targets identified in the same year.

However, even if the commitments in the Copenhagen agreement fully implemented after 2020 required emission reductions, more ambitious than was envisaged in the early goal to spend more. And has committed to reduce emissions by 2020 can be derived, also need more efforts to reduce emissions since before track to reach 2 degrees Celsius target orbit.

You in the implementation of national policies

In the “Outlook”, respectively, according to three “scenarios” of 2008-2035 years, the world’s energy demand is predicted. In the 27 years prior to 2008, the world energy consumption is growing at a rate of 2% per year. In the “new policy scenario”, the world’s primary energy demand will increase 36% between 2008-2035, about from 123 tons of oil equivalent increased to 167 tons of oil equivalent, an average annual increase of 1.2%; in the “current policy scenario” , the growth rate of 1.4% per year; In addition, in the “450 scenarios (ie the long-term atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at 450ppm carbon dioxide equivalent)” ,2008-2035 under the will only grow at a rate of 0.7% per year.

“The new policy scenario” is this year’s “Outlook” in the core scenario, which takes into account a wide range of countries around the world announced policy commitments and programs, including national commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and phase out subsidies for fossil energy programs, but also to be determined or announced measures to implement these commitments.

Fossil fuels oil, coal and natural gas in spite of their overall share of a fuel mix changes significantly, but in all three scenarios, the next 25 years will remain the dominant source of energy. Renewable energy and nuclear power in the “450 scenario” under the possession of the highest share in the “current policy scenario” under the share of the lowest.

Upward on the international market and the increasingly heavy price pressure of carbon penalties, resulting in the sale to end users of fossil fuel prices are rising, there are policies to encourage energy conservation and switching to low-carbon energy sources, all contribute to the suppression of the three fossil fuels demand.

Due to the high prices and government measures designed to improve fuel efficiency, the industrial and power generation sector to further reduce the use of oil, the transportation industry emerged using other fuels instead of petroleum products, new opportunities, the oil in a share of the energy mix to 33 from 2008 % to 28%, but in the “Outlook” during the oil in the primary energy structure is still the dominant fuel. Around 2025, the demand for coal will always grow, and then in the “Outlook” remaining period of slow decline. Because gas is more practical and more beneficial to the environment, and promote low-carbon energy technologies, the limitations of speed, natural gas demand growth will be far more than other fossil fuels.

The share of nuclear power will be increased by 6% in 2008 to 8% by 2035. The use of modern renewable energy sources, including hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, biomass and ocean energy, in the “Outlook” will be increased 2-fold during the period, its total energy demand in a share will be increased to 7% 14%. By 2020, the consumption of traditional biomass increased slightly, due to increased use of modern fuels in developing countries, 2035 will fall to just below the current level.

Emerging economies will drive global demand

This breadth of economic activity in emerging economies, industrial production, population and urbanization accelerates. China’s energy demand increased substantially over the past decade, accounting for projected growth in global energy use 36%, the demand in 2008-2035 will rise between 75%. By 2035, China’s share of world energy demand will rise from today’s 17% to 22%. India is the growth in global demand by 2035 the second largest contributor, will account for 18% increment, “outlook” period more than doubled its energy consumption. In the forecast period, slow growth in energy demand in OECD countries, followed by its total energy demand at a standstill. However, by 2035, the United States is still second only to China, the world’s second largest energy consumer, far more than India.

2000-2008, China’s energy consumption increased by more than four times more than in the 1990s, the future prospects for further growth remains strong, as China’s per capita consumption level is still low, only a third of the OECD average, and it has more than 13 billion people. Therefore, the “Outlook” in the global energy demand forecast for China’s energy drives the basic assumptions of the key variables remain highly sensitive, including the prospects for economic growth, economic restructuring, energy and environmental policy development and urbanization.

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