With the Federal Reserve and other major central banks this week ushered in a new round of key interest-rate, global monetary policy, “second quantization” big screen may be officially open. But in view of the market for a new round of the final quantitative measures announced and the actual effect size is still difficult to grasp, arises from the uncertainty, making the global investor risk appetite in 10 cooling occurred last week, U.S. stocks may also be presented this week severe shock. For A shares, the short-term but also have anti-exotic “headwinds.”

The Fed is difficult to meet the market

Only from the point of view the density of the central bank meetings this week’s wave of global interest-rate comparable to October 2008, was when the panic of the financial crisis, the world’s major central banks cut interest rates simultaneous implementation, funding and other emergency measures. Analysts generally believe that the Federal Reserve this week launched an unprecedented second round of quantitative easing measures, and may force the United Kingdom, the euro zone and so did not intend to continue to ease monetary policy in the economies of mass passive follow-up.

However, the problem is that because the market has long expected the Fed to make no matter what decision, it may be difficult for investors satisfied. In other words, this week’s meeting on interest rates might be disappointed to let the market high probability event.

Now widely expected, the Fed’s meeting may be introduced this week in size from 500 to 1000 billion U.S. dollars in the asset purchase program. However, many economists have questioned, as the monetary policy to stimulate the “marginal efficiency” weakened, a new round of quantitative easing is difficult to receive the results. Investment bank Goldman Sachs estimated that the Federal Reserve in order to be effective the new round of quantitative easing, at least the size should be 4 trillion!

On the other hand, from the perspective of the Federal Reserve, recently seemed to have more signs that the authorities have in promoting the second retreat of the intention to quantify, mainly based on two considerations:

One is care dollars. Because the United States next year’s budget deficit exceeded 1.4 trillion U.S. dollars is expected to continue, the United States next to a large number of bonds, which requires the U.S. can not decline indefinitely. Even U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner uncharacteristically threw the recent strong dollar on, it is understood will also be some pressure on the Fed;

The second is the policy of cooperation with China. Last month China announced to raise interest rates, and holdings of U.S. debt again, some experts say that similar initiatives are likely to mean that China and the U.S. have reached consensus on the currency issue. That the release of the Chinese yuan appreciation by raising interest rates positive signal, while the United States a more restrained pace of implementation of quantitative easing measures to prevent the dollar plunge.

U.S. stocks volatile week of fear experienced

Analysts pointed out that the Federal Reserve is expected before the market higher, once the interest-rate meeting this week about inadequate expected, the psychological impact on investors will be relatively large. Recent financial market has maintained the “dollar down, stocks up, commodities up” the dynamic balance, may be temporarily broken.

Prudential International Investment Chopra, chief strategist, points out that this week, the U.S. stock market will be very volatile, will be very active, because there are too many factors that may affect the next trend. In addition to the Fed’s interest-rate, mid-term elections on Tuesday, the U.S. Congress will make investors nervous tension, because the election results may change U.S. policy toward the future.

Even the most accurate analysts on Wall Street, now would not easily predict the stock market this week, but we have a consensus is, this week the U.S. stock market in recent years, the most stressful week, the market trend may ups and downs.

The latest trends in index options markets shows that traders expect the magnitude of fluctuations in U.S. stocks this week may reach 2.5%, while many people think that the final volatility may be greater.

Xia Erpu strategist at JPMorgan Chase, said the Fed may be the final decision to let the market down. He believes that if the measure was unexpected, or investors, the interpretation of policy initiatives to change up or down before the unilateral market may experience reversal. In view of this, Xia Erpu has asked its appropriate to reduce the risk of operating funds.

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