Global Shrouded in Inflationary Pressure and Tightening Pressure
If not flock to China’s cheap products the global market, the U.S. and Europe should have inflation. But the contrary, Chinese products to maintain the United States and Europe before the crisis long-term high growth, low inflation, the pattern is about to burst in 2007 until 2008, only the reverse.
Suffering from inflationary pressures in China, the United States suffer from deflationary pressures.
U.S. government and Federal Reserve to huge deficit in the balance sheet and large, I hope out of the tight state. U.S. government budget deficit out of control, the U.S. budget in 2011 was 3.8 trillion, according to the latest forecast Obama administration, fiscal 2010 U.S. budget deficit will reach a record high of 1.56 trillion U.S. dollars. Since the 60s of last century, the economic downturn and the war needs, the U.S. government began to adopt expansionary fiscal policy, deficit financing from the situation as uncollectible. To the late 80s, size of the deficit over 2000 billion U.S. dollars. The mid-90s of last century, was reduced due to the economic prosperity, but rebounded sharply in the new century, in 2004 exceeded 400 billion U.S. dollars. The financial crisis, in 2009 the first 9 months of 2008 than the deficit more than doubled. The Fed’s balance sheet expanded rapidly, from the maximum expansion of more than 9,000 billion U.S. dollars to 3 trillion dollars.
Expansion did not markedly. From the CPI data, the U.S. is still in a state of deflation. Recent slight rise, the latest Labor Department report showed U.S. November producer price index (PPI) rose by 0.8% qoq, slightly above market expectations for the largest increase since March. This gives the Americans a glimmer of hope.
China is just the opposite and inflationary pressures rising.
In the event of default before the financial crisis, such as fixed exchange rates, low labor costs, an extremely liberal environmental policy, emission requirements, coupled with highly creative productivity, successfully neutralized the excessive proliferation of the dollar could lead to global inflation, and formed between the United States the issue of currency, sales of the loop. China and other countries buy U.S. Treasury bonds, leading to lower U.S. bond yields remain at the location, and the Fed have to continue to grant monetary reasons.
Currently the currency issued by the Federal Reserve did not go into the real economy, U.S. corporate credit remained at a lower position, but the dollar risk of the global investment market, the global commodity markets gradually return to high. The real estate market crisis, financial crisis, the ratio between oil and gold are destroyed, the price of gold rising, oil price shocks. If the ratio back to normal, or drop the price of gold, or oil prices, if oil prices break through previous highs, global exposure to the real estate market bubble will be a huge risk, the first is the Chinese real estate.
Federal Reserve to maintain low inflation, a large issuance of currency situation is changing, a big turning point has come, in the process, will be forced to slow yuan appreciation. When the appreciation of the renminbi to a certain extent, the U.S. and Europe will find that they receive from dividends in the Chinese economy will be less and less, while inflation from China received the information. One day, the U.S. and Europe will find their shooting itself in the foot.
China’s exports in November increased by 35%, largely due to price uplift, the current rising inflationary pressures in China, the gradual appreciation of the exchange rate, the factory had to raise wages in response to the rising cost of living. After the financial crisis, China’s issuance of credit and currency rose sharply, which will in the next few years, inflation in China to face greater challenges, and through bulk purchasing of raw materials and prices slowly rising inflation in some areas of the small and firmly transmitted to the world.
At this point, Europe and the U.S. fiscal deficit and balance sheet expansion of the curse began to apparitions, Europe nowhere to pass the crisis, inflation will backfire on the U.S. and European economies. The biggest crisis facing China – the terrible face of the asset bubble will appear, once the world into inflation, China’s real estate bubble will not be maintained.
Drug addicts are still doing drugs. U.S. Federal Reserve will meet to discuss the evening of 14 Beijing monetary policy in the United States launched the second round of quantitative easing, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has been drawn high, Takami was 3.39%, and the quantitative easing want to drive down interest rates to encourage borrowing the original intent of the opposite. At this point, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke predicted that the third round of the quantitative easing policy echoes in our ears.
Tightening of the U.S. and Europe is only a temporary phenomenon, into a black hole in the middle, the United States, Japan and other countries in the world of money one day sounding the inflation alarm, warning the first round of the emerging markets and real estate bubble, the second round is commodity markets, and ultimately we will find the appearance of the tight, the prices of industrial goods from emerging countries in the quietly rising.
There is nothing to long-term from the economic norm, whether the U.S. deficit, China’s credit, or global prices. CPI is currently rising in Europe and America hope one day we will tolerate a general increase in CPI to pay.
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