5 Uncertainties About the World Economy
Today’s world economy is interlaced light and dark conditions. Emerging countries, the optimism because of doubts about the sustainability of China’s economic growth and greatly reduced, while export growth in Germany, the EU is still stalled.
September 2008 outbreak of the crisis, economists guessing, will appear within the next few years what kind of recovery model is “V” shaped recovery, “W”-shaped recovery, or “U” shaped recovery? The next 8 months will be crucial.
Economic presence in the world 5 puzzle are: fiscal adjustment and sovereign debt, consumer and investor confidence, new economy, credit crunch and the hidden crisis.
Fiscal adjustment and sovereign debt due to government intervention to stabilize the financial system and stimulate the production of the world economy to avoid a similar to the last century, the Great Depression of 30 years. The current incentives have been exhausted, except outside the United States, no one thinks there may be updated.
In the EU, Germany, Britain, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece have announced a generous adjustment program to address the debt problem. Since the initial implementation phase is still present, these measures do not impact on the economy overall.
This shift of economic policy developed countries has brought many questions. The European countries, is not clear that large-scale adjustments will solve the problem of sovereign debt, or will further exacerbate the problem, as well as Europe and the world economy will have a significant impact.
In other words, there is no financial oxygen to avoid the second round of the recession in the developed countries do?
Consumer and investor confidence is the confidence of the economy the most sensitive and easily avoid one of the factors. Consumers and businesses, the survey data is floating, contradictory.
Professor of Economics and Political Science London, Stern recently told the British “Financial Times” interview, said: “No one knows the consumer or investor confidence in the end how the.”
One thing is clear: if consumers are not spending, businesses do not invest, the economy will fall into a new round of recession.
Everyone is talking about the emerging economic power of emerging economies and emerging economies, the driving force on the world economy. According to World Bank forecasts economic growth in the euro zone this year, only 0.7%, while more than 8% in Asia, Latin America, 4.5%.
China is the new engine of economic expansion, the latest data show that in July this year, China’s demand for raw materials declined.
At the same time, needs to be emphasized is the world’s developed world still accounts for 70% of gross domestic product, the weight of the developed countries in the world is still important.
If the recession proves anything, it is that emerging countries can not escape the world economy hit the first hurricane. The risk of global systemic crisis still exists.
Credit crunch credit crunch in 2007 ended the support for the growth of many developed countries the era of easy money. Since then, the financial rescue of the banks are once again showing a nice account, but the loan is still not flowing.
If loans can not re-flow, the economy can not provide support for the recovery. In addition, the international financial system still exist within their own questions.
Hidden crisis in September 2008 is the gradual expansion in the dark has not been attention to the financial bubble burst. In the first half of this year’s sovereign debt crisis, European countries once again to all surprised.
Not long ago, the European banks of the “stress test” results show that 91 banks tested, only seven could not resist the assumed economic recession, but the test and did not take into account the possibility of sovereign debt stop paying.
Currently, the so-called “toxic assets” appears to have been brought under control. But the IMF said the crisis behind the substantial increase in financial derivatives transactions. British economist Hutton said the UK 40% -60%, major banks of the profits from derivatives.
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Category: World Affairs
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