Although the semiconductor market seems very Huo-wang, but analysts see the alert signal to cause. Analysts warned the recovery is not the same.

As the semiconductor equipment and materials market exceptional burst of growth, but many industry analysts believe the industry has seen a shadow. Although SEMI orders / sales, B / B to 1.23 remains high, and orders the world average of 3 months in 2009 compared with growth of 220.4 percent, but many of the industry head of the Silicon Valley in recent luncheon seminar to discuss the trend of industrial growth in 2011-2012 could hear the voices of the various cross.

Gartner’s semiconductor BobJohnson that investment growth in 2010 of more than 90%, and will continue to grow in 2011. It may still be true that in 2012, and then start a new round of the down cycle. In 2010, after 35.4 billion U.S. dollars, Gartner now forecasts 2011 investment of 37.7 billion U.S. dollars, up 6.6%, and grew by 8.2% in 2012, reaching 40.8 billion U.S. dollars. Gartner now forecasts the callback again in 2013 (14.6% compared to 2012) to 349 billion.

Gartner now for the semiconductor market is still optimistic that in the end, driven by strong demand, especially in PC and mobile phone. At the same time Johnson also told you that recently the United States, the European Union and other economic uncertainty began, and the supply chain, inventory increases and other factors, the industry may be enough to cause fluctuations in vigilance.

ICInsight the BillMcClean that the current weakness of the U.S. economy does not represent the entire global economy. Although the United States, European Union, and Japan’s GDP in 2010, slow growth, but the rest of the world’s GDP growth reached 7.3%, such as China and India may increase by 10.6% up 8.5%, and many areas have high growth, that this will push up the global IC market demand.

Thus BillMcClean tell you more industrial development since 1983 graphics, the recovery is not the same. Investment declined in the two years after the investment quickly leaps this year, not next year. Estimated 2010 growth of 93% of the global semiconductor investment, while only 9% in 2011. Historically, the largest fixed-asset investment growth is always in the recovery after the first 2 years.

Usually the semiconductor industry in the 50% increase in investment will be followed by a decline in investment. But this is slightly different from the production perspective, annual production capacity of 2009 decreased 7.6%, in the history of the first 1 (that semiconductor capacity is always increasing year by year, even if there are so many times before the cycle of decline, but production did not decrease) , while the estimated production in 2010 increased by only 1.6%, and the 300mm of the capacity utilization rate was 98.4%, reflecting the market can easily adapt to the rapid increase in investment in fixed assets this year. Such changes that investment in the semiconductor industry will enter a new model, or predict future trends in semiconductor investment growth until 2013, however, the cycle will be more moderate decline.

Both analysts agreed that the next cycle of semiconductor manufacturing will be promoted mainly by the memory. Johnson estimated that investment in 2010 to 41% from memory, 21% from OEM / OSAT (OEM package after the Road) and 17% from IDM.

McClean statistics, memory 6 10 large and medium large, they account for memory 55% of the total investment. In addition to traditional investment cycle is subject to utilization of ASP or Chan Zhi Wai impact changes, memory can be recognized in the company Taibu Fen, in the tighter conditions have to be super-cycle of ups and downs Jiasu investment. But overall, Johnson that memory manufacturers rely on future investment needs of their own cash flow is not enough.

Periodic or cyclical investment trends over the semiconductor industry is a challenge, but it can be said is unique to the semiconductor industry. Need to rely on the global R & D to promote the progress of the semiconductor industry is a special case. When the industry to follow Moore’s Law and meet shareholder expectations and IC supply chain to adapt to rapid ups and downs that investment. Semiconductor equipment industry in 2009 fell to freezing point (from 44 billion U.S. dollars in 2007 fell to 17 billion U.S. dollars or less) is a member of SEMI test of a challenge. For the semiconductor industry, with many of Dr will withstand the next wave, but the next few quarters is still a substantial improvement in market conditions, and then further time will be answered.

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