Save “or” not save “? This is not only a problem in Ireland is today’s European Economic and Financial Affairs Council of the important issues. According to foreign media reported yesterday, the Irish are likely to accept the rescue plan, but may only limited to the banking sector rather than government departments.

The shadow of European sovereign debt crisis has never receded – the original Greek is “tip of the iceberg”, and when the crisis respite, greater financial and banking crisis has been quietly throughout Europe. Morgan Stanley has always believed that the debt problem will gradually erode the country from the periphery to the core European countries. And this prophecy seems to realize – the Irish crisis has become the European “new pathogens”, Portugal and Spain, there have been “infected” signs.

EU governments are currently subjected to great pressure on the Irish because the Irish crisis has generated a lot of “spillover effect” – a serious spill, Portugal, Spain and other external markets. At the same time, European Central Bank (ECB) has been urging the Irish to accept the “European financial stability institutions (European Financial Stability Facility, referred to as EFSF)” relief, because we can not afford market interest rates because the banking sector financing, has had to rely on ECB and the Bank of Ireland emergency loans.

However, the Irish government has sternly refused to apply any external assistance, and claimed that “at least mid-2011, Ireland’s financial situation can fully support the functioning of the State” and therefore not eager to help. Irish resistance to the pressure of aid is also justifiable, because the application for aid may hurt the confidence of international investors, so that the Government “disgrace.”

In fact, the Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen also admitted on Monday, the Irish government is working with its European partners on “how to support banking and financial system stability” to start negotiations, but he reiterated that the Irish government did not apply for emergency relief – it does not autocorrelation contradictions: He said that Ireland’s interest is limited to rescue the bank, and want to ensure that the cost of capital is not too high.

The question is, how much the Irish relief funds? Clearly the Irish government itself does not require much financial assistance in place immediately, but the Irish banking system is vulnerable is the country’s “Achilles heel.”

Deutsche Bank economists said in the report or even calculate how much money Irish banks can be “revived” has gone beyond the scope of science – it takes time to arrive at a specific figure, but even so, this figure may also be a lot of questions .

That being the case, analysts have every reason to be on Tuesday and Wednesday meeting of EU finance ministers have expectations to reach rescue agreement, have begun to “solve” the Irish crisis.

“Ireland is the ideal solution for help EFSF, which can be of 4% to 5% interest rate to finance the subsidies, some of which loans to refinance the country’s banking system and restructuring.” Morgan Stanley of Joachim Fels in charge on November 15 in the research report said.

In fact, last Friday’s bond market has already started on the EFSF or earlier made a positive response. However, the Irish government seems more willing to fiscal consolidation, with a firm determination to tell the market should not be too worried. Joachim Fels is expected pressure from the EU could force Ireland to EFSF help, including the resolution of the banking crisis, adjustment programs, which may occur in the fastest on Tuesday or Wednesday meeting of EU finance ministers.

Thomas Mayer, chief economist at Deutsche Bank also noted that the continuing spread of the Irish crisis makes EFSF / IMF help to resolve the possibility of increasing market pressures.

Nov. 15 Deutsche Bank research report that the situation has almost returned to the European market in early 2010 the situation, Ireland and Portugal to seek assistance from EFSF “seems to be inevitable in the medium term”, but because these two countries do not want to application for relief, less likely in the short term relief.

The first round of the first half of the debt crisis in Europe – the Greek sovereign debt crisis has proved that no sovereign debt risk and ambiguity is the uncertainty of the attack will be the market entry point.

Even if Ireland and the EU reached agreement on a credible, it does not mean that the euro zone sovereign debt crisis can come to an end – the euro zone will continue to “dangerous.”

First, the market is willing to Portugal and Spain, which is not a buffer of funds to finance other external markets? Morgan Stanley and Societe Generale Bank and other analysts generally believe that if the Irish ultimately to EFSF for help, then the Portuguese will also be followed. Spain has a relatively better fundamentals – the country’s financial and banking problems still controllable. Spain, however, is not one hundred percent safe.

Another uncertainty is EFSF expires in June 2013 will be how to continue the time.

May 10 this year, the EU approved a total of 7,500 million euros to help EFSF likely to fall into the debt crisis of the euro area member states to prevent the spread of the debt crisis in Europe.

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